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What is FOREX ?
The Foreign Exchange market, also referred to as the "FOREX" is the biggest and largest financial market in the world. It has a daily average turnover of US$1.9 trillion- just imagine that amount of money! Don't you want to join this trillion-dollar industry?
FOREX is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another. Currencies are traded in pairs, for example Euro/US Dollar (EUR/USD) or US Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY). So basically, FOREX is trading.
There are two reasons to buy and sell currencies. About 5% of daily turnover is from companies and governments that buy or sell products and services in a foreign country or must convert profits made in foreign currencies into their domestic currency.
The other 95% is trading for profit, or what you call speculation. Investors frequently trade on information they believe to be superior and relevant, when in fact it is not and is fully discounted by the market.
On one side of each speculative stock trade is a participant who believes he has superior information and on the other side is another participant who believes his information is superior.
For speculators, the best trading opportunities are with the most commonly traded (and therefore most liquid- meaning its in cash or convertible to cash) currencies, called "the Majors." Today, more than 85% of all daily transactions involve trading of the Majors.
A true 24-hour market, FOREX trading begins each day in Sydney, and moves around the globe as the business day begins in each financial center, first to Tokyo, London, and New York. Unlike any other financial market, investors can respond to currency fluctuations caused by economic, social and political events at the time they occur - real time- day or night.
The FOREX market is considered an Over The Counter (OTC) or 'interbank' market. This is because the transactions are conducted between two counterparts over the telephone or via an electronic network. Trading is not centralized on an exchange compared to stocks and futures markets.
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How DO FOREX qoutes work ?
Reading a FOREX quote may seem a bit confusing at first. However, it's really quite simple if you remember two things: 1) The first currency listed first is the base currency and 2) the value of the base currency is always 1.
The US dollar is the centerpiece of the FOREX market and is normally considered the 'base' currency for quotes. In the "Majors", this includes USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD. For these currencies and many others, quotes are expressed as a unit of $1 USD per the second currency quoted in the pair. For example, a quote of USD/JPY 110.01 means that one U.S. dollar is equal to 110.01 Japanese yen.
When the U.S. dollar is the base unit and a currency quote goes up, it means the dollar has appreciated in value and the other currency has weakened. If the USD/JPY quote we previously mentioned increases to 113.01, the dollar is stronger because it will now buy more yen than before.
The three exceptions to this rule are the British pound (GBP), the Australian dollar (AUD) and the Euro (EUR). In these cases, you might see a quote such as GBP/USD 1.7366, meaning that one British pound equals 1.7366 U.S. dollars.
In these three currency pairs, where the U.S. dollar is not the base rate, a rising quote means a weakening dollar, as it now takes more U.S. dollars to equal one pound, euro or Australian dollar.
In other words, if a currency quote goes higher, that increases the value of the base currency. A lower quote means the base currency is weakening.
Currency pairs that do not involve the U.S. dollar are called cross currencies, but the premise is the same. For example, a quote of EUR/JPY 127.95 signifies that one Euro is equal to 127.95 Japanese yen.
When trading FOREX you will often see a two-sided quote, consisting of a 'bid' and 'offer'. The 'bid' is the price at which you can sell the base currency (at the same time buying the counter currency). The 'ask' is the price at which you can buy the base currency (at the same time selling the counter currency).
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What is a PIP ?
In the Forex market, prices are quoted in pips. Pip stands for "percentage in point" and is the fourth decimal point, which is 1/100th of 1%.
In EUR/USD, a 3 pip spread is quoted as 1.2500/1.2503
Among the major currencies, the only exception to that rule is the Japanese yen. In USD/JPY, the quotation is only taken out to two decimal points (i.e. to 1/100 th of yen, as opposed to 1/1000th with other major currencies).
In USD/JPY, a 3 pip spread is quoted as 114.05/114.08
The smallest price increment in a currency, so instead of a point like in stocks, in the forex market it is called a pip.
Margin Trading :
Marginal trading is simply the term used for trading with borrowed capital. It is appealing because of the fact that in FOREX investments can be made without a real money supply. This allows investors to invest much more money with fewer money transfer costs, and open bigger positions with a much smaller amount of actual capital. Thus, one can conduct relatively large transactions, very quickly and cheaply, with a small amount of initial capital. Marginal trading in an exchange market is quantified in lots. The term "lot" refers to approximately $100,000, an amount which can be obtained by putting up as little as 0.5% or $500.
EXAMPLE: You believe that signals in the market are indicating that the British Pound will go up against the US Dollar. You open 1 lot for buying the Pound with a 1% margin at the price of 1.49889 and wait for the exchange rate to climb. At some point in the future, your predictions come true and you decide to sell. You close the position at 1.5050 and earn 61 pips or about $405. Thus, on an initial capital investment of $1,000, you have made over 40% in profits. (Just as an example of how exchange rates change in the course of a day, an average daily change of the Euro (in Dollars) is about 70 to 100 pips.)
When you decide to close a position, the deposit sum that you originally made is returned to you and a calculation of your profits or losses is done. This profit or loss is then credited to your account.
Economics Indicators:
Those trading in the foreign-exchange market (forex) rely on the same two basic forms of analysis that are used in the stock market: fundamental analysis and technical analysis. The uses of technical analysis in forex are much the same: price is assumed to reflect all news, and the charts are the objects of analysis. But unlike companies, countries have no balance sheets, so how can fundamental analysis be conducted on a currency?
Since fundamental analysis is about looking at the intrinsic value of an investment, its application in forex entails looking at the economic conditions that affect the valuation of a nation's currency. Here we look at some of the major fundamental factors that play a role in the movement of a currency.
Economic Indicators
Economic indicators are reports released by the government or a private organization that detail a country's economic performance. Economic reports are the means by which a country's economic health is directly measured, but do remember that a great deal of factors and policies will affect a nation's economic performance.
These reports are released at scheduled times, providing the market with an indication of whether a nation's economy has improved or declined. The effects of these reports are comparable to how earnings reports, SEC filings and other releases may affect securities. In forex, as in the stock market, any deviation from the norm can cause large price and volume movements.
You may recognize some of these economic reports, such as the unemployment numbers, which are well publicized. Others, like housing stats, receive little coverage. However, each indicator serves a particular purpose, and can be useful. Here we outline four major reports, some of which are comparable to particular fundamental indicators used by equity investors:
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The GDP is considered the broadest measure of a country's economy, and it represents the total market value of all goods and services produced in a country during a given year. Since the GDP figure itself is often considered a lagging indicator, most traders focus on the two reports that are issued in the months before the final GDP figures: the advance report and the preliminary report. Significant revisions between these reports can cause considerable volatility. The GDP is somewhat analogous to the gross profit margin of a publicly traded company in that they are both measures of internal growth.
Retail Sales
The retail-sales report measures the total receipts of all retail stores in a given country. This measurement is derived from a diverse sample of retail stores throughout a nation. The report is particularly useful because it is a timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns that is adjusted for seasonal variables. It can be used to predict the performance of more important lagging indicators, and to assess the immediate direction of an economy. Revisions to advanced reports of retail sales can cause significant volatility. The retail sales report can be compared to the sales activity of a publicly traded company.
Industrial Production
This report shows the change in the production of factories, mines and utilities within a nation. It also reports their 'capacity utilizations', the degree to which the capacity of each of these factories is being used. It is ideal for a nation to see an increase of production while being at its maximum or near maximum capacity utilization.
Traders using this indicator are usually concerned with utility production, which can be extremely volatile since the utilities industry, and in turn the trading of and demand for energy, is heavily affected by changes in weather. Significant revisions between reports can be caused by weather changes, which in turn, can cause volatility in the nation's currency.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The CPI is a measure of the change in the prices of consumer goods across over 200 different categories. This report, when compared to a nation's exports, can be used to see if a country is making or losing money on its products and services. Be careful, however, to monitor the exports - it is a focus that is popular with many traders because the prices of exports often change relative to a currency's strength or weakness.
Some of the other major indicators include the purchasing managers index (PMI), producer price index (PPI), durable goods report, employment cost index (ECI), and housing starts. And don't forget the many privately issued reports, the most famous of which is the Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey. All of these provide a valuable resource to traders, if used properly.
So, How Are These Used?
Since economic indicators gauge a country's economic state, changes in the conditions reported will therefore directly affect the price and volume of a country's currency. It is important to keep in mind, however, that the indicators discussed above are not the only things that affect a currency's price. There are third-party reports, technical factors, and many other things that also can drastically affect a currency's valuation. Here are a few useful tips that may help you when conducting fundamental analysis in the foreign exchange market:
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The GDP is considered the broadest measure of a country's economy, and it represents the total market value of all goods and services produced in a country during a given year. Since the GDP figure itself is often considered a lagging indicator, most traders focus on the two reports that are issued in the months before the final GDP figures: the advance report and the preliminary report. Significant revisions between these reports can cause considerable volatility. The GDP is somewhat analogous to the gross profit margin of a publicly traded company in that they are both measures of internal growth.
Retail Sales
The retail-sales report measures the total receipts of all retail stores in a given country. This measurement is derived from a diverse sample of retail stores throughout a nation. The report is particularly useful because it is a timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns that is adjusted for seasonal variables. It can be used to predict the performance of more important lagging indicators, and to assess the immediate direction of an economy. Revisions to advanced reports of retail sales can cause significant volatility. The retail sales report can be compared to the sales activity of a publicly traded company.
Industrial Production
This report shows the change in the production of factories, mines and utilities within a nation. It also reports their 'capacity utilizations', the degree to which the capacity of each of these factories is being used. It is ideal for a nation to see an increase of production while being at its maximum or near maximum capacity utilization.
Traders using this indicator are usually concerned with utility production, which can be extremely volatile since the utilities industry, and in turn the trading of and demand for energy, is heavily affected by changes in weather. Significant revisions between reports can be caused by weather changes, which in turn, can cause volatility in the nation's currency.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The CPI is a measure of the change in the prices of consumer goods across over 200 different categories. This report, when compared to a nation's exports, can be used to see if a country is making or losing money on its products and services. Be careful, however, to monitor the exports - it is a focus that is popular with many traders because the prices of exports often change relative to a currency's strength or weakness.
Some of the other major indicators include the purchasing managers index (PMI), producer price index (PPI), durable goods report, employment cost index (ECI), and housing starts. And don't forget the many privately issued reports, the most famous of which is the Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey. All of these provide a valuable resource to traders, if used properly.
So, How Are These Used?
Since economic indicators gauge a country's economic state, changes in the conditions reported will therefore directly affect the price and volume of a country's currency. It is important to keep in mind, however, that the indicators discussed above are not the only things that affect a currency's price. There are third-party reports, technical factors, and many other things that also can drastically affect a currency's valuation. Here are a few useful tips that may help you when conducting fundamental analysis in the foreign exchange market:
Keep an economic calendar on hand that lists the indicators and when they are due to be released. Also, keep an eye on the future; often markets will move in anticipation of a certain indicator or report due to be released at a later time.
Be informed about the economic indicators that are capturing most of the market's attention at any given time. Such indicators are catalysts for the largest price and volume movements. For example, when the U.S. dollar is weak, inflation is often one of the most watched indicators.
Know the market expectations for the data, and then pay attention to whether or not the expectations are met. That is far more important than the data itself. Occasionally, there is a drastic difference between the expectations and actual results and, if there is, be aware of the possible justifications for this difference.
Don't react too quickly to the news. Oftentimes, numbers are released and then revised, and things can change quickly. Pay attention to these revisions, as they may be a useful tool for seeing the trends and reacting more accurately to future reports.
Conclusion
There are many economic indicators, and even more private reports that can be used to evaluate the fundamentals of forex. It's important to take the time to not only look at the numbers, but also understand what they mean and how they affect a nation's economy. When properly used, these indicators can be an invaluable resource for any currency trader.
Keep an economic calendar on hand that lists the indicators and when they are due to be released. Also, keep an eye on the future; often markets will move in anticipation of a certain indicator or report due to be released at a later time.
Be informed about the economic indicators that are capturing most of the market's attention at any given time. Such indicators are catalysts for the largest price and volume movements. For example, when the U.S. dollar is weak, inflation is often one of the most watched indicators.
Know the market expectations for the data, and then pay attention to whether or not the expectations are met. That is far more important than the data itself. Occasionally, there is a drastic difference between the expectations and actual results and, if there is, be aware of the possible justifications for this difference.
Don't react too quickly to the news. Oftentimes, numbers are released and then revised, and things can change quickly. Pay attention to these revisions, as they may be a useful tool for seeing the trends and reacting more accurately to future reports.
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Candle stick charts :
Candlestick charts have been around for hundreds of years. They are often referred to as "Japanese candles" because the Japanese would use them to analyze the price of rice contracts.
Similar to a bar chart, candlestick charts also display the open, close, daily high and daily low. The difference is the use of color to show if the stock went up or down over the day.
The chart below is an example of a candlestick chart for AT&T (T). Green bars indicate the stock price rose, red indicates a decline:
Investors seem to have a "love/hate" relationship with candlestick charts. People either love them and use them frequently, or they are completely turned off by them. There are several patterns to look for with candlestick charts - here are a few of the popular ones and what they mean:
This is a bullish pattern - the stock opened at (or near) its low and closed near its high.
The opposite of the pattern above, this is a bearish pattern. It indicates that the stock opened at (or near) its high and dropped substantially to close near its low.
Known as "the hammer", this is a bullish pattern only if it occurs after the stock price has dropped for several days. A hammer is identified by a small body along with a large range. The theory is that this pattern can indicate that a reversal in the downtrend is in the works.
Known as a "star", this pattern is used in other patterns such as the "doji star". For the most part, stars typically indicate a reversal and or indecision. There is a possibility that after seeing a star there will be a reversal or change in the current trend.
So this is the basics of candle stick charting. Of course there are many other patterns, but this should get you started.
Support and Resistance :
Support and resistance are the focus of how supply and demand meets. In the financial markets, prices are driven by excessive supply (down) and demand (up). Supply is synonymous with bearish, bears and selling. Demand is synonymous with bullish, bulls and buying. As demand increases, prices advance and as supply increases, prices decline. When supply and demand are equal, prices move sideways as bulls and bears slug it out for control.
Support is a level at which bulls take control over the prices and prevent them from falling lower. Think of support as a floor, when we fall we hit the floor and most of the time; we bounce back up, just like a stock. But sometimes, we fall through the floor, and keep on falling until we hit another floor, just like a stock.
Resistance, on the other hand, is the point at which sellers take control of prices and prevent them from rising higher. The price at which a trade takes place is the price at which a bull and bear agree to do business. It represents the consensus of their expectations.
Support levels indicate the price where the most of investors believe that prices will move higher. Resistance levels indicate the price at which the most of investors feel prices will move lower.
Now, on my chart I will give you an example of what it looks like when these principles are applied. You can see that it is trading in a flat channel, which is just what you want. However, you can apply support and resistance levels upward or downward.
This is the most basic form of technical analysis. All you must do is determining where the support line is and the resistance line is. However, when a price breaks through one of them, you will see a rally based on whatever line was broken. When this happens it is a good idea to stay out of the trade and wait for the price to determine the next support and resistance line. A breakout above a resistance level is evidence of an upward shift in the demand line as more buyers become willing to buy at higher prices. Similarly, the failure of a support level shows that the supply line has shifted downward.
Moving Averages:
In this lesson we will examine, explain and apply the simple moving average to a 4hour time frame chart. Moving averages are one of the most popular and easy to use technical tools available to the average investor. They smooth a data series and make it easier to spot trends, channels, something that is especially helpful in volatile markets. Moving averages are also a great starter for anyone who wants to expand their technical analytical knowledge in any market. I would suggest you log into the DEMO account at FXCM (explained in DEMO section) and pull up the AUD/USD 4hour time chart, preferably a candle stick chart and apply the following.
The simple moving average is formed by computing the average price of a security over a specified number of periods. When ever you input a variable for a simple moving average calculation, it is always the close price of the security that will be included in the calculation. For example: a 5-day simple moving average is calculated by adding the closing prices for the last 5 days and dividing the total by 5. For an example, here are the closing prices of ABC stock.
15+16+17+18+19 = 85
85 / 5 = 17
The averages are then joined which creates a curvilinear line, or the moving average line. Continuing our example, if the next closing price in the average is 20, then this new period would be added. As each days ends, a new day will be added and the oldest day will be eliminated (15). Once a price has broken a moving average line, and depending on what type of time frame, it might signal a shift upwards or downwards. As you see in the picture below, it has broken all three moving average lines in the upward direction, and as you can see, it continued to climb higher.
Bollinger Bands :
Bollinger bands are a technical tool used by many in which lines are plotted two standard deviations above and below a moving average, and at the moving average itself. Because standard deviation measures volatility, these bands will be wider during increased volatility and narrower during decreased volatility. Some technical analysts consider a market which approaches the upper band to be overbought, and a market which approaches the lower band to be oversold. The closer the prices move to the upper band, the more overbought the market, and the closer the prices move to the lower band, the more oversold the market.
When using Bollinger Bands, designate the upper and lower bands as price targets. If the price deflects off the lower band and crosses above the 20-day average (which is the middle line), the upper band comes to represent the upper price target. In a strong uptrend, prices usually fluctuate between the upper band and the 20-day moving average. When that happens, a crossing below the 20-day moving average warns of a trend reversal to the downside. In a perfect world, you will see the price bounce between either the upper or lower band against the center. So, if EUR/USD is bouncing off the upper band and the center line, you can trend it in a channel, so when the price hits the center line, it should bounce back up towards the upper band.
Setup: The default settings for Bollinger bands are 2.0 standard deviations around a 20 day exponential moving average.
MACD :
MACD is A trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the "signal line", is then plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy and sell signals.
There are three common methods used to interpret the MACD:
1. Crossovers - As shown in the chart above, when the MACD falls below the signal line, it is a bearish signal, which indicates that it may be time to sell. Conversely, when the MACD rises above the signal line, the indicator gives a bullish signal, which suggests that the price of the asset is likely to experience upward momentum. Many traders wait for a confirmed cross above the signal line before entering into a position to avoid getting "faked out" or entering into a position too early, as shown by the first arrow.
2. Divergence - When the security price diverges from the MACD. It signals the end of the current trend.
3. Dramatic rise - When the MACD rises dramatically - that is, the shorter moving average pulls away from the longer-term moving average - it is a signal that the security is overbought and will soon return to normal levels.
Traders also watch for a move above or below the zero line because this signals the position of the short-term average relative to the long-term average. When the MACD is above zero, the short-term average is above the long-term average, which signals upward momentum. The opposite is true when the MACD is below zero. The zero line often acts as an area of support and resistance for the indicator.
Head and Shoulders pattern :
A head and shoulders pattern consists of a peak followed by a higher peak and then a lower peak with a break below the neckline. The neckline is drawn through the lowest points of the two intervening troughs and may slope upward or downward. A downward sloping neckline is more reliable as a signal.
The extent of the breakout move can be estimated by measuring from the top of the middle peak down to the neckline. This target is then projected downwards from the point of breakout.
Volume Confirmation
High volume on the first peak,
Moderate volume on the middle peak,
Low volume on the third peak, and
A sharp increase in volume on the break below the neckline.
Trading Signals
Go short at breakout below the neckline.
Place a stop-loss just above the last peak.
After the breakout, price often rallies back to the neckline which then acts as a resistance level. Go short on a reversal signal and place a stop-loss one tick above the resistance level.
Never trust a head and shoulders pattern where the neckline is clearly ascending (the second trough being higher than the first). Also, the more level the neckline, the more reliable the pattern.
Inverted Head and Shoulders
With inverted head and shoulders the neckline is drawn through the highest points of the two intervening peaks. A downward sloping neckline signals continuing weakness and is less reliable as a reversal signal.
The extent of the breakout move can be estimated by measuring from the top of the middle trough up to the neckline. This target is then projected upwards from the point of breakout.
Volume Confirmation
High volume on the first trough,
Moderate volume on the second trough,
High volume on the second peak,
Low volume on the third trough, and
A sharp increase in volume at the breakout.
Trading Signals
Go long at breakout above the neckline.
Place a stop-loss one tick below the last trough.
There is frequently a correction back to the neckline, which then acts as a support level. Go long on a reversal signal and place a stop-loss one tick below the support level.
Never trust an inverted head and shoulders pattern where the neckline is clearly descending (the second peak being lower than the first). The more level the neckline, the more reliable the pattern.
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